(AP photo)
- Regime gains dubious legitimacy - but don't expect democracy any time soon
- West treats regime's rigged victory as a down-payment on a Southern referendum
Long before voting started on 11 April, it was clear that the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in Khartoum would maintain its iron grip on power and that interested governments would accept this, despite the widespread evidence of fraud produced by Sudanese and foreign observers alike (AC Vol 51 No 7). The opposition decision to boycott spoiled the plan.
For Khartoum, internationally accepted elections would counter the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omer Hassan Ahmed el Beshir. For Western governments, the elections were an essential building block in an orchestrated peace process which would culminate in next year's referendum on independence for Southern Sudan.
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After the opposition threatened a boycott, the United States Special Envoy, Air Force General (Retired) J. Scott Gration, flew in to 'save' the elections, initially due to run on 11-13 April but then extended due to the chaos. He declared them 'as free and fair as possible'. A triumphant Field Marshal Omer told a 3 April rally in Blue Nile: 'Even America is becoming an NCP member. No one is against our will.' The ruling NCP (the rebranded National Islamic Front, NIF) cheered. Sudanese democrats felt betrayed.
Other concerns at this early stage include the growing estrangement between North and South and the divisions within the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), linked to this widening gap. Meanwhile, the Northern opposition has surprised itself (and others) by its defiance of the NCP regime and will seek to use the coming year, when Khartoum will attempt to sabotage the Southern and Abyei referenda, to rebuild itself and strengthen its challenge to the NCP. Foreign governments and non-governmental organisations will focus on the South, leaving a victorious Khartoum more scope in its war in Darfur and in combating the Northern opposition's attempts to restore democracy - and itself.
The NCP's victory celebrations took flight in the week between the initial SPLM boycott and the start of voting. Its victory, it told the public in rallies and the media, would be the people's victory, marking the democratic transformation (a key phrase) they had been waiting for since 1986 (date of the last multiparty elections, which were generally free - in the North, at least). A 6 April release by the very official Sudan News Agency (Suna) used the term 'free and fair' three times in three paragraphs.
read on at Africa Confidential
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